Bitcoin enters deep bear-market valuation zone, harder phase may lie ahead

Bitcoin has slipped into a valuation zone that historically marks the deepest stages of bear markets, and the next phase could test the patience of even the most steadfast holders.

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading near its 200-week moving average, a rough four-year trend line closely watched by long-term investors. According to data from Checkonchain, this puts bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range — a zone that has only appeared during the worst parts of past bear markets. The move comes even after the hottest U.S. inflation print in three years, which initially rattled risk assets but failed to push bitcoin decisively lower from this level.

For crypto traders, this valuation signal carries a dual message. On one hand, it suggests that much of the selling pressure from price-sensitive investors has already been absorbed, as those who capitulate at such lows are typically the last to exit. On the other hand, history shows that bear market bottoms are rarely a single event. The harder phase often involves months of sideways price action that gradually erodes the conviction of those who remain. Live crypto prices and charts on NowPrice show how the market is reacting to these dynamics in real time, offering traders a window into whether accumulation or distribution is underway.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether bitcoin can hold above the 200-week average or if a sustained break below it would signal a deeper downturn. Traders will watch for a period of low volatility and range-bound trading, which historically precedes the next major move. The coming weeks will also be shaped by macroeconomic data, particularly any shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, as well as on-chain metrics like exchange reserve drawdowns and miner behavior that could indicate whether the market is bottoming or merely pausing.