Bitcoin long-term holder selling hits 19-month low as halving model signals bottom

Selling from Bitcoin holders with coins older than five years has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, according to on-chain data. The decline in long-term holder distribution suggests that the oldest and most resilient Bitcoin investors are reducing their selling activity, a historically bullish signal for the market. This cohort, often called 'diamond hands,' now holds a record share of the circulating supply, with exchange reserves continuing to draw down to multi-year lows. The reduced sell pressure from these wallets contrasts with the behavior of short-term speculators, who are more reactive to price swings.

This metric, which tracks the spending behavior of wallets holding Bitcoin for more than five years, fell to a 19-month low. Such a drop indicates that these seasoned investors are choosing to hold rather than sell, reducing the available supply on exchanges. For crypto traders, this supply squeeze can create upward pressure on prices if demand remains steady. The dynamic is amplified by the post-halving environment: after April 2024's halving cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, miner break-even costs have risen, forcing less efficient miners to capitulate and further tightening supply. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have absorbed a significant portion of newly mined coins, with net inflows often exceeding daily issuance. NowPrice live charts show Bitcoin's price action in real time, reflecting how the market is absorbing this shift in holder behavior.

Looking ahead, a halving-based market cycle model suggests that the next major bottom could occur around September 2026. Historically, Bitcoin bottoms have formed roughly 12-18 months after each halving event, aligning with the period when miner selling pressure wanes and accumulation resumes. The model also incorporates Bitcoin dominance, which has been trending higher as altcoins underperform, and macroeconomic headwinds like elevated US Treasury yields and a strong DXY, which have historically correlated with crypto pullbacks. On-chain data shows whale wallets have been accumulating during dips, while exchange reserves continue to shrink, reinforcing the supply narrative. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the combination of declining long-term holder selling and the halving timeline provides a framework for traders to watch key support levels in the coming months.