$13B Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms: Bears Hold the Upper Hand

Bitcoin bears hold the upper hand in the upcoming $13 billion options expiry, a potentially early warning that more BTC downside could unfold.

The largest monthly options expiry for Bitcoin is set for June 26, with open interest exceeding $13 billion. Data from Deribit shows that put options (bearish bets) dominate call options (bullish bets) by a significant margin, giving bears control over the settlement. This imbalance suggests that many traders expect Bitcoin prices to remain under pressure or decline further as the expiry approaches. The max pain point, where the most options expire worthless, is estimated around $65,000, well below current trading levels, indicating that market makers may push prices toward that level to minimize payouts.

For cryptocurrency traders, this options expiry is a key event that can influence short-term price action. A bearish expiry often leads to increased volatility and potential selling pressure as positions are unwound. Traders can monitor the live options flow and BTC price movements on NowPrice's real-time dashboard to gauge market sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly. The dominance of puts also reflects broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, exacerbated by macroeconomic headwinds such as rising interest rates and regulatory uncertainty.

Looking ahead, traders should watch for the actual settlement price on June 26 and the subsequent open interest for July. If Bitcoin fails to hold above key support levels, a move toward $60,000 or lower could materialize. Conversely, a surprise rally above the max pain point could trigger a short squeeze, but the current options positioning suggests bears remain in control. The next major catalyst will be the release of US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary, which could further sway risk assets including cryptocurrencies.