Bitcoin Rally Stalls as Profit-Taking Rises, US Demand Drops: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin's recent rally has stalled at a critical resistance level, with on-chain data from CryptoQuant indicating rising profit-taking and declining US demand, a combination that has historically preceded major downturns. The halving cycle, which reduces miner rewards every four years, typically creates supply scarcity, but current data suggests that short-term holders are cashing out aggressively. Miner break-even economics are also under pressure as hashprice declines, forcing less efficient miners to sell reserves, adding to overhead supply. Meanwhile, exchange reserve drawdowns have paused, signaling that the accumulation trend seen in recent months is losing steam.

The top cryptocurrency by market cap saw its upward momentum fade after approaching key price levels, as traders moved to lock in gains. CryptoQuant's data shows that profit-taking activity has increased significantly, while demand from US-based investors has weakened. This divergence is often a warning sign for the market, as it suggests that the buying pressure necessary to sustain a rally is fading. Live crypto prices and charts on NowPrice reflect this shift, with Bitcoin trading near the resistance zone as market participants assess the next move. BTC dominance has also slipped, indicating that capital is rotating into altcoins, which historically coincides with Bitcoin consolidation or correction phases. On-chain whale concentration metrics show large holders distributing coins to exchanges, a pattern that often precedes price declines. Additionally, the correlation with US Treasury yields and the DXY has strengthened, as rising yields and a stronger dollar reduce appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.

The pattern of rising profit-taking and falling US demand has historically been a precursor to sharp corrections. If the trend continues, Bitcoin could face a deeper pullback, especially if broader risk sentiment weakens. Traders are watching key support levels and the upcoming US economic data releases for further direction. The on-chain metrics will be crucial in determining whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a more significant reversal. ETF flow dynamics are also in focus, as spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows in recent sessions, reversing the strong inflows that fueled the rally. A sustained decline in ETF demand could exacerbate selling pressure, while a rebound in US investor activity would be needed to reignite the uptrend.