Bitcoin Rejection at 200-Day SMA Echoes 2022 Bear Market Pattern

Bitcoin's attempt to break above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $82,000 failed last week, sending prices back to $77,500 and reviving memories of the 2022 bear market when a similar relief rally was rejected at the same technical level.

The rejection is particularly notable because the 200-day SMA is widely watched by traders as a key trend indicator — a break above it often signals a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. In 2022, Bitcoin rallied 43% from its June low to the 200-day SMA before being turned away, eventually falling to new cycle lows. The current pullback from the same resistance level raises the question of whether history is repeating itself.

Analytics firm CryptoQuant attributes the failed breakout to three fading supports that had fueled the April and early May rally: declining spot exchange inflows, reduced miner selling pressure, and a slowdown in outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to CryptoQuant, these factors are now reversing or losing momentum, weakening the case for a sustained recovery. For traders monitoring the situation, NowPrice's real-time Bitcoin quotes provide the latest price action as the market tests key support levels.

Looking ahead, traders will watch whether Bitcoin can hold above the $75,000-$77,000 support zone. A breakdown below that range could open the door to a retest of the February lows near $70,000. On the upside, a reclaim of the 200-day SMA would invalidate the bearish pattern and signal renewed strength. Key data to watch this week include US jobless claims and Fed commentary, which could influence risk appetite across crypto and equity markets.