Bitcoin Rises to $77,700 as Trump Says US in 'Final Stages' of Iran Talks

Bitcoin rose to $77,700 on Wednesday, adding 1.6% in 24 hours, after President Trump said the US is in the 'final stages' of peace talks with Iran. The comment lifted risk assets broadly, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.4% and oil prices extending losses. The move higher in bitcoin came as traders interpreted Trump's remark as a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, which had weighed on markets in recent weeks. A resolution could reduce safe-haven demand for the dollar and Treasuries, while boosting appetite for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell nine basis points to 4.58%, reflecting a shift in sentiment. For crypto traders, the rally underscores bitcoin's growing correlation with macro risk events. Check NowPrice's crypto page for real-time pricing on BTC and other digital assets.

This price action occurs against a backdrop of structural tailwinds for bitcoin. The ongoing halving cycle, which reduced block rewards in April 2024, has tightened supply as new issuance drops to roughly 450 BTC per day. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain robust, with net inflows exceeding $30 billion since launch, absorbing available coins and reducing exchange reserves to multi-year lows. On-chain data shows whale wallets accumulating, with addresses holding 1,000+ BTC rising steadily. Miner break-even economics have shifted higher post-halving, requiring bitcoin to sustain above $70,000 for efficient operations, which supports price floors. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 62%, signaling capital rotation from altcoins into BTC during macro uncertainty. Additionally, the DXY has weakened 2% over the past month, historically a tailwind for bitcoin as dollar-denominated assets become less attractive. The correlation with US Treasury yields remains negative, as falling yields (down 50 bps from January highs) reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor further developments in US-Iran negotiations and any official statements from Tehran. A confirmed deal could sustain the risk-on mood, while a breakdown might reverse gains. Key levels to watch include bitcoin's resistance near $78,000 and support at $76,000. On the macro front, the next Fed meeting and US CPI data will test whether the current risk appetite persists. A break above $78,000 could open the door to retesting all-time highs, while a drop below $76,000 may trigger stop-losses and accelerate selling. Exchange reserve drawdowns suggest limited sell-side liquidity, which could amplify moves in either direction. Traders should also watch for shifts in BTC dominance and ETF flow data as leading indicators of market direction.