Bitcoin targets $80K shorts on Iran peace deal: 5 things to know this week

Bitcoin is set to rebound to $80,000 and squeeze shorts in the process, traders say, but BTC price analysis warns of multiple sticking points for bulls. The potential Iran peace deal has boosted risk sentiment, but on-chain data shows that exchange reserves remain low, suggesting that supply pressure is limited. However, the lack of new demand from spot ETFs and the increasing open interest in futures markets indicate that the rally may be driven by speculative leverage rather than organic buying. The halving cycle, which historically reduces new supply and often precedes bullish trends, is currently in effect, but the impact may be delayed by macroeconomic headwinds. Bitcoin dominance remains elevated, indicating that altcoins are not yet seeing significant inflows, while exchange reserve drawdowns suggest that long-term holders are accumulating rather than selling. Traders can monitor these moves on NowPrice's live crypto dashboard to track real-time price action and liquidation levels.

Bitcoin traders predicted a short squeeze to $80,000, but a lack of overall demand and the return of leverage sparked warnings of more liquidation events to come. Miner break-even economics are under pressure after the halving, with some miners forced to sell reserves to cover costs, adding potential selling pressure. On-chain whale concentration shows that large holders are accumulating, which historically supports price stability, but the correlation with US Treasury yields and the DXY remains a risk: rising yields and a strong dollar typically weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin. The recent rally has been accompanied by increasing open interest in futures markets, suggesting that leveraged positions are building, which could lead to cascading liquidations if the price reverses. Spot ETF flows have been tepid, with net outflows on some days, indicating that institutional demand is not yet strong enough to sustain a breakout.

Looking ahead, the key levels to watch are $80,000 as resistance and $70,000 as support. A break above $80,000 could trigger further short squeezes, while a failure to hold $70,000 may lead to a retest of $60,000. The upcoming US jobs data and Fed commentary will also be crucial for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The 4-year halving cycle historically supports bullish trends post-halving, but the current macroeconomic uncertainty could delay the next leg higher. Additionally, the DXY and US Treasury yield movements will be closely watched, as a weakening dollar and lower yields could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin. Traders should monitor exchange reserve drawdowns and whale activity for signs of accumulation, while keeping an eye on liquidation levels to gauge potential volatility.