Jefferies Warns Crypto Volatility Risk as Clarity Act Faces Senate Hurdles
Jefferies warns that political uncertainty around the Clarity Act could fuel crypto market volatility, as Polymarket odds of passage by end-2026 drop to 48% from 70% in mid-May.
Investment bank Jefferies has warned that political uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act could trigger heightened volatility in cryptocurrency markets in the coming weeks. The warning comes as the bill faces significant hurdles despite clearing the Senate Banking Committee earlier this year.
The Clarity Act passed the Senate Banking Committee in a bipartisan 15-9 vote, but Jefferies cautioned that tougher challenges lie ahead. Polymarket, a leading prediction market, now puts the odds of the bill becoming law by the end of 2026 at 48%, down sharply from 70% in mid-May. Concerns over ethics provisions, illicit finance provisions, and limited Senate floor time before the August recess are weighing on its prospects. Lawmakers have roughly 20 legislative days to merge competing Senate versions, clear procedural votes, and reconcile the measure with the House.
For cryptocurrency traders, regulatory clarity is a key driver of institutional adoption and market sentiment. The uncertainty around the Clarity Act's passage could keep risk appetite subdued, especially if the odds continue to decline. Traders should monitor legislative developments closely, as any positive or negative surprise could trigger sharp price moves. For real-time pricing context, check NowPrice's crypto page. Looking ahead, the next key milestone is the August recess deadline; failure to advance before then could further reduce passage probabilities and weigh on market sentiment.