More Bitcoin Now Held at a Loss Than at a Profit for First Time This Cycle

For the first time in the current market cycle, more Bitcoin is held at a loss than at a profit, a milestone that underscores the severity of the correction from January's all-time high. This shift in supply profitability reflects the broader downturn, which has seen BTC drop over 20% from its peak, driven by macroeconomic headwinds such as rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening DXY, which typically pressure risk assets. The halving cycle, which historically precedes bull runs, has yet to offset these macro pressures, as miner break-even costs have risen post-halving, forcing some miners to liquidate reserves.

According to Glassnode data, roughly 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss, meaning their acquisition price exceeds today's market price. In contrast, only 9.22 million BTC remain in profit. This crossover has historically occurred near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer buyers, often marking the point where coins migrate from weaker to stronger hands. Long-term holders, who tend to have higher conviction, are more likely to sit through losses rather than sell, potentially setting the stage for accumulation. On-chain data shows that whale concentration has increased, with large wallets accumulating during dips, while exchange reserve drawdowns suggest coins are moving to cold storage, reducing immediate selling pressure.

For cryptocurrency traders, this metric is a key sentiment gauge. A loss-dominated supply often precedes a bottoming process, as selling pressure from distressed holders eventually exhausts. However, BTC dominance has risen above 55%, indicating that capital is rotating from altcoins into Bitcoin, which could delay an altcoin recovery. Traders can monitor these on-chain shifts on NowPrice's live crypto dashboard to track real-time changes in supply profitability. The next data points to watch include whether long-term holder accumulation accelerates and whether exchange inflows remain subdued, both of which would support a recovery narrative. Additionally, ETF flow dynamics will be critical, as spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows in recent weeks, reflecting institutional caution amid macro uncertainty.