StanChart Sees 3 Signs of Bitcoin Bottom, Including Strategy's Monday News

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick told clients on Friday that crypto asset prices have likely seen their low for the current cycle, declaring that "winter is over." He is looking for confirmation from three key indicators, including Strategy's weekly Bitcoin purchase report expected on Monday. The call comes after Bitcoin fell to a local low near $76,500, a level that tested miner break-even economics and triggered a sharp drawdown in exchange reserves as whales accumulated. The broader crypto market has been pressured by a rising DXY and higher US Treasury yields, which reduced risk appetite across speculative assets. Kendrick's view aligns with historical patterns: Bitcoin bottoms often coincide with capitulation selling, followed by a recovery in ETF inflows and a decline in BTC dominance as altcoins regain ground.

Kendrick's bullish call comes after a prolonged period of price weakness in the crypto market. The three indicators he is monitoring include Strategy's Bitcoin buying activity, which has historically been a strong signal of institutional demand. The other two indicators were not detailed in the report but are likely tied to on-chain metrics and market structure, such as the halving cycle's supply squeeze and whale concentration levels. For traders tracking the market, NowPrice's real-time crypto quotes provide the latest levels for Bitcoin and other digital assets. The recent drawdown in exchange reserves suggests that long-term holders are moving coins to cold storage, a pattern often seen near cycle bottoms. Additionally, the correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY has weakened in recent weeks, hinting that crypto may be decoupling from macro headwinds.

The analyst's outlook suggests that the worst of the sell-off may be behind the market. Investors will now watch for Strategy's Monday announcement to see if the firm continued its aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin last week. A positive update could reinforce confidence that the bottom is in, while any slowdown in buying might raise questions about institutional appetite. The coming days will be critical for confirming whether the cycle low has indeed been established. Key levels to monitor include Bitcoin's ability to hold above $80,000 and a sustained drop in BTC dominance, which would signal capital rotation into altcoins. If ETF flows turn positive and exchange reserves continue to decline, the case for a durable bottom strengthens. However, a break below recent lows could trigger another wave of miner selling and put the $70,000 support zone in play.