Treasury Yields Hit 12-Month High, Bitcoin Stays Below 200-Day Average

Two- and ten-year US Treasury yields have climbed to their highest levels in 12 months, while Bitcoin remains stuck below its 200-day moving average. The yield on the 10-year note breached 4.5%, and the 2-year yield pushed above 5%, reflecting expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy. The market is now pricing in fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated, with the Fed funds futures implying only one or two quarter-point cuts by year-end. This macro backdrop has historically correlated with reduced risk appetite and capital outflows from digital assets, as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold. For crypto traders, the DXY (US Dollar Index) has also strengthened, adding headwinds. At the same time, tokenized Treasury markets may benefit as investors seek on-chain exposure to yields. For current pricing context, check NowPrice's crypto page.

The rise in yields is a key driver of Bitcoin's recent underperformance. Bitcoin has been trading below its 200-day moving average for several weeks, a technical level that often signals bearish sentiment. The 200-day MA, currently around $67,000, acts as a resistance zone. On-chain data shows whale concentration has increased, but exchange reserve drawdowns suggest accumulation by long-term holders. However, miner break-even economics are under pressure, with hashprice near cycle lows. The halving cycle historically leads to a supply squeeze, but the current macro environment may delay the typical post-halving rally. Bitcoin dominance has risen, indicating capital rotation within crypto, but the broader market cap remains constrained. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has weakened, while the inverse correlation with the DXY and yields has strengthened, highlighting the macro-driven nature of the current price action.

Traders should watch the upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for clues on the rate path. A break above the 200-day moving average on Bitcoin could signal a shift in momentum, but sustained yield highs may keep the asset under pressure. Key levels to monitor include the 200-day line and the recent yield peaks for further direction. Additionally, ETF flow dynamics will be crucial; spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen mixed flows, with recent outflows reflecting macro concerns. If yields continue to rise, Bitcoin may test support near $60,000, while a dovish Fed pivot could trigger a rally above $70,000. The interplay between macro factors and crypto-specific catalysts will determine the next major move.