Brent Heads for 6% Weekly Gain as Trump Loses Patience With Iran

Brent crude futures are heading for a 6% weekly gain after US President Donald Trump said his patience with Iran was running out, reigniting fears of supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, Trump stated, "I am not going to be much more patient," and urged Iran to make a deal. The comments come despite Iran's claim that 30 vessels had recently cleared the strategic waterway, suggesting tensions remain high. This geopolitical risk is amplified by the fact that OPEC+ spare capacity is concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which could be called upon to offset any prolonged disruption, though their ability to fully replace a Hormuz closure is limited given the scale of throughput.

For oil and gas traders, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of global oil passes. Any escalation could directly impact supply flows, pushing prices higher. The 6% weekly gain in Brent reflects the market pricing in a risk premium. This premium is also evident in the Brent-WTI spread, which has widened as Brent is more exposed to Middle East supply risks. Meanwhile, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels remain near 40-year lows, reducing the buffer that could be deployed to calm markets. Crack spreads—the difference between crude oil and refined product prices—have also widened, indicating that refineries are passing on higher crude costs to consumers. Live fuel prices and charts on NowPrice show how the market is reacting to these geopolitical developments in real time.

Looking ahead, traders are watching for any progress from the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, which could influence the outlook on the Hormuz situation. However, no concrete news has emerged so far. Key levels to monitor include Brent's resistance near $80 per barrel, with support around $75. Any diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a sharp reversal, while further escalation may push prices toward $85. The market is also watching for signs of contango or backwardation in the futures curve, which would indicate whether traders expect a near-term supply squeeze or a longer-term glut. Additionally, China's marginal demand for crude remains a wildcard, as any slowdown in its economy could offset geopolitical premiums. Saudi-Russia coordination within OPEC+ will be crucial in determining how quickly spare capacity is brought online if disruptions materialize.