AUDUSD buyers stall near 38.2% retracement after breaking above key moving averages

The Australian dollar staged a notable rally against the US dollar on Friday, briefly pushing above both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages for the first time since June 17. The move followed a softer-than-expected US jobs report, which fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may ease its tightening path, supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.

The AUDUSD pair climbed to an intraday high of 0.6943, but buyers failed to clear the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the June 15 high at 0.69503. The inability to break above this level suggests that selling pressure remains near the retracement zone, and the pair has since retraced some of its gains. The break above the moving averages was significant because it marked the first time since the hawkish FOMC decision that the pair traded above both key averages simultaneously. Since then, oil prices have fallen sharply, and the softer jobs data has increased hopes that inflation pressures could ease, providing a tailwind for the Aussie.

For forex traders, the AUDUSD move highlights the interplay between US labor market data and risk appetite. A softer labor market reduces the urgency for Fed rate hikes, which tends to weaken the dollar and support higher-beta currencies. The 38.2% retracement level at 0.6950 now acts as near-term resistance, while the moving averages around 0.6900 provide support. Traders can monitor real-time AUDUSD quotes on NowPrice to track whether the pair can sustain above the moving averages or if sellers regain control.

Looking ahead, the focus shifts to next week's US inflation data and any Fed commentary. A further softening in CPI could reinforce the dovish narrative and push AUDUSD toward the 50% retracement near 0.6980. Conversely, a rebound in US data or hawkish Fed remarks could trigger a reversal below the moving averages. The oil price trend also remains a factor for the commodity-linked Aussie.