ECB's Moulin says bank in good position as oil-driven inflation eases

ECB Governing Council member Francois Moulin said the central bank is in a 'good position' as oil-driven inflation pressures ease, reinforcing a growing sense among some policymakers that the tightening cycle has peaked. His comments, reported over the weekend, explicitly linked the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to lower inflation, tying the ECB's rate path to the same de-escalation trades moving oil and broader risk markets.

Moulin's remarks support the case for investors who have already pared bets on further rate hikes this year, a shift that has weighed on the euro in recent weeks as rate differentials with the US narrow. For forex traders, this signals that the ECB may be less inclined to tighten further, potentially capping euro upside against the dollar and other major currencies. Traders can monitor the euro's reaction on NowPrice's live FX dashboard to track real-time moves as markets digest the dovish tilt.

Looking ahead, the ECB remains data-dependent, with Moulin refusing to offer forward guidance beyond a meeting-by-meeting approach. This leaves room for other Council members who worry about second-round effects on wages and services. Euro rate markets are likely to stay sensitive to any fresh inflation surprises, particularly from services and wage data, rather than settling on a single direction. Key releases this week include eurozone services PMI and German industrial production, which could provide further clues on the inflation outlook.