GBPUSD sellers push below 100-hour MA, target May/June low

GBPUSD sellers have taken control, pushing the pair below the 100-hour moving average and accelerating losses toward the May/June low. The move accelerated during the North American session after stronger-than-expected US data. The pair had been oscillating around a key swing area between 1.3365 and 1.33739 earlier in the day. However, sellers leaned on the top of that zone, drove the price below the 100-hour moving average at 1.33635, and triggered a downside breakout. The decline extended to a session low of 1.3325, approaching the May/June support level. The catalyst was a batch of stronger US economic data, including initial jobless claims and the PPI report, which combined with yesterday's CPI to push core PCE inflation expectations to 0.4%. This reduces the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar. Live FX prices and charts on NowPrice show the market's reaction in real time, with GBPUSD now testing critical support.

The move reflects a widening interest-rate differential between the US and UK, as the Fed is now expected to hold rates higher for longer while the Bank of England faces a more uncertain outlook. This divergence in central bank policy has fueled a carry-trade unwind, with investors reducing short-dollar positions. Real-rate differentials have also shifted in favor of the dollar, as US inflation expectations rise while UK real yields lag. The break below the 100-hour MA is significant because it signals a shift in short-term momentum, with sellers now targeting the May/June low near 1.3325. A break below that level could open the door to further downside, potentially testing the 1.3300 handle. On the upside, a recovery above the 100-hour MA would signal a potential reversal, but that would require a catalyst such as weaker US data or dovish Fed commentary.

Traders will watch for a break below the May/June low near 1.3325, which could open the door to further downside. On the upside, a recovery above the 100-hour MA would signal a potential reversal. Key US data releases and Fed commentary will be closely monitored for further direction. The next major support is at 1.3300, followed by the 200-day moving average near 1.3250. Resistance is at the 100-hour MA and the swing area around 1.3370. A close below 1.3325 would confirm the bearish bias, while a bounce above 1.3370 would suggest the selling pressure is easing. The terms-of-trade pass-through from stronger US data also supports the dollar, as higher yields attract capital inflows. Intervention thresholds are not yet in play, but a rapid move below 1.3300 could prompt verbal intervention from UK officials.