Rupee set to rally at open as oil slides below pre-Iran war levels

The Indian rupee is expected to rally at the open on Thursday, diverging from weakness across Asian currency markets, as Brent crude oil slides below pre-Iran war levels and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is seen providing support.

Traders anticipate the rupee will open in the 94.25-94.30 range, firmer than Wednesday's close of 94.6650. The move is driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below levels seen before the Iran conflict, which reduces India's import bill and improves the current account. Additionally, the RBI is likely intervening to prevent excessive volatility, reinforcing the rupee's strength against a backdrop of broad Asian currency weakness.

For forex traders, the rupee's resilience highlights the impact of oil price dynamics on currency markets, particularly for net importers like India. Lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures and support the rupee, while RBI intervention provides a floor. Live FX prices and charts on NowPrice show how the rupee is reacting against the dollar and other Asian peers in real time. The divergence from regional weakness also underscores the importance of country-specific factors in currency trading.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor further oil price movements and any RBI commentary. Key levels to watch include the 94.00 support and resistance near 94.50. Data releases such as India's trade balance and global risk sentiment will also influence the rupee's trajectory. The ongoing Iran situation and OPEC+ decisions remain critical for oil prices and, by extension, the rupee.