UK jobs data disappoints, US dollar stays supported

UK jobs data for April disappointed market expectations, with the unemployment rate ticking higher and an early estimate showing a 100,000 drop in payrolls. The Office for National Statistics cautioned that the April 2026 estimate is provisional and likely to be revised when more data are received next month, citing increased uncertainty due to the change of tax year. Despite the mixed data, the overall softer tone weighed on the British pound, while the US dollar remained supported.

The softer UK jobs report reinforces the view that the labour market is cooling, which could reduce pressure on the Bank of England to maintain a hawkish stance. This divergence in monetary policy expectations between the BoE and the Federal Reserve, where the latter remains cautious on rate cuts, has kept the dollar bid. For forex traders, the pound-dollar pair remains sensitive to upcoming UK inflation and GDP data, as well as any shifts in Fed rhetoric. For the latest exchange rates, check NowPrice's real-time quotes.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on UK inflation data due later this week, which will provide further clues on the BoE's policy path. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments, including the recent US decision to call off a large-scale military strike against Iran, continue to influence risk sentiment. A sustained break above key resistance levels in the dollar index could signal further upside, while a softer inflation print in the UK might accelerate sterling losses.