Wall Street splits on gold as forecasts range from $4,800 to $6,000
Goldman Sachs revised its central-bank demand model, lifting estimated purchases to 60 tonnes per month through 2026, while Wall Street forecasts for gold range from $4,800 (BofA) to $6,000 (JPMorgan), with traders watching for softer US labor data to reduce Fed hawkishness.
Wall Street is increasingly divided on gold's outlook, with year-end price targets ranging from $4,800 at Bank of America to $6,000 at JPMorgan, reflecting sharply different views on how central-bank buying, Federal Reserve policy, and dollar dynamics will shape the market.
Goldman Sachs recently revised its central-bank demand model, lifting its estimated monthly purchases to roughly 60 tonnes through 2026 from an earlier 29-tonne pace. The revision gives the bullish case a firmer structural anchor, even after the bank trimmed its year-end gold target by $500 in June. The dispersion across Wall Street highlights how differently banks are weighing sovereign buying against rate and dollar headwinds.
For currency and commodities traders, the gold outlook is closely tied to real-rate differentials and dollar direction. A softer US labor market, as suggested by June payrolls coming in well below expectations, could reduce conviction in continued Fed hawkishness, potentially weakening the dollar and supporting gold. Traders can monitor real-time gold prices and dollar index levels on NowPrice's fx page for current pricing context.
Looking ahead, gold bulls will be watching for confirmation that softer labor data feeds through to reduced Fed hawkishness, alongside any pickup in ETF inflows. The wide range of forecasts suggests that the balance between central-bank demand and macroeconomic headwinds remains highly uncertain, making upcoming US inflation and employment data critical for the next directional move.