Analyst sees Bitcoin hitting $227K-$378K amid monetary scarcity, gold flows

U.S. Tiger Research has set a long-term valuation range for Bitcoin at $227,000 to $378,000 per coin, based on the digital asset capturing 15% to 25% of gold's total market value over time.

Analyst Bo Pei said the thesis assumes Bitcoin becomes a meaningful minority allocation relative to gold across institutions, private wealth, and households. The valuation framework uses an illustrative gold market capitalization of $31.8 trillion and Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins. The report highlights that the macro backdrop supports Bitcoin's monetary premium, citing global M2 expansion from roughly $23 trillion at Bitcoin's launch to more than $1 quadrillion today. This monetary scarcity narrative has historically benefited gold as a store of value, and Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a digital alternative. For gold and precious metals traders, the analysis underscores the ongoing competition between gold and Bitcoin for safe-haven flows. While gold remains the traditional hedge against currency debasement, Bitcoin's fixed supply and growing institutional adoption challenge gold's dominance. Traders can monitor the relative performance of gold and Bitcoin on NowPrice's live dashboards to track shifts in investor sentiment.

Looking ahead, the key catalyst to watch is the pace of institutional adoption of Bitcoin, particularly through ETFs and corporate treasuries. If Bitcoin's market share relative to gold continues to rise, it could pressure gold prices in the medium term. Conversely, any regulatory setbacks for Bitcoin could reinforce gold's safe-haven appeal. The report's timeframe is long-term, so near-term price action may be driven by macro factors such as Fed policy and inflation data.