Gold Edges Lower as Dollar Steadies, Remains Rangebound

Gold prices edged lower on Friday afternoon as the US dollar steadied, keeping the precious metal rangebound after a week of mixed trading. The move reflects ongoing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's next policy steps and global demand dynamics. Spot gold slipped 0.3% to around $2,650 per ounce, while COMEX futures for December delivery eased to $2,662. The dollar index (DXY) held near 106.5, recovering from earlier losses, which weighed on gold via the well-established inverse correlation. Real US 10-year yields, a key opportunity cost driver for non-yielding gold, remained elevated near 2.1%, further capping upside. Despite the pullback, gold has found support from sustained central bank buying, which has been a dominant theme since 2022, with global central banks adding over 1,000 tonnes annually in recent years. The metal also continues to benefit from geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability, which have underpinned safe-haven demand.

Gold has been trading in a narrow range as traders weigh the impact of a steady dollar against expectations of future rate cuts. A stronger dollar typically pressures gold by making it more expensive for holders of other currencies. However, the metal continues to find support from central bank buying and geopolitical tensions, which have underpinned demand since 2022. The COMEX-LBMA spread has remained tight, indicating orderly physical delivery markets, while ETF flows into GLD and IAU have been mixed, with some net inflows this week as investors hedge against policy uncertainty. Jewelry demand, particularly from India and China, has softened due to high prices, but investment demand via bars and coins has held steady. Live gold prices and charts on NowPrice show the metal hovering near key technical levels, with traders watching for a breakout. The 50-day moving average near $2,640 provides support, while resistance at $2,670 aligns with recent highs.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming US economic data, including inflation readings and employment figures, which could influence the Fed's rate path. A break above resistance or below support could set the direction for the next leg. Central bank policy decisions and currency moves remain key drivers for gold in the near term. The Fed's November meeting is in focus, with markets pricing in a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. Any shift in rate expectations could trigger a breakout from the current range. Additionally, the DXY's trajectory will be critical; a sustained move above 107 could pressure gold further, while a break below 105 may fuel a rally. Traders are also monitoring COMEX positioning data for speculative shifts, which could signal the next directional move.