New Zealand Q1 GDP Preview: Economy Expected to Show Solid Growth

New Zealand's March quarter GDP data, due for release on Thursday, is expected to show the economy gained solid momentum in the early months of 2026. The median market forecast points to quarterly growth of 0.9%, up sharply from the 0.2% expansion recorded in the December quarter. On an annual basis, growth is seen slipping to 1.1% from 1.3% as a strong March quarter result a year earlier creates a high base.

The data comes at a critical time for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has been navigating a delicate balance between supporting growth and managing inflation. A stronger-than-expected GDP print could reduce the urgency for rate cuts, while a miss might reinforce expectations for further easing. The RBNZ had pencilled in 1.0% quarterly growth in its May Monetary Policy Statement, a level matched by both ANZ and Westpac in their updated forecasts. NowPrice users can track live NZD and swap rate movements as the release hits the wires.

Looking ahead, the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February looms as a far larger threat to output in the quarters ahead, potentially clouding the outlook for New Zealand's export-dependent economy. Traders will also watch for any revisions to prior quarters and the breakdown of components such as services and goods production. The GDP release will set the tone for the RBNZ's next policy decision, with markets pricing in a rate cut later this year if growth disappoints.