Bitcoin set to slump to new lows for 2026 after recent sell-off, traders forecast
Bitcoin fell to its lowest since early April after Strategy sold a small portion of its holdings, and Kalshi traders see an 80% chance it drops below $60,000 in 2026.
Bitcoin prices fell to their lowest levels since early April on Tuesday, extending a sell-off triggered by crypto treasury company Strategy selling a small amount of its bitcoin holdings. The decline has intensified bearish sentiment, with traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now forecasting further downside. According to Kalshi, there is nearly an 80% chance that bitcoin will fall below $60,000 in 2026, which would mark a new low for the year, below February's intraday low of $60,062. Additionally, traders see a 52% probability that prices will dip under $50,000, a level not seen since August 2024.
The sell-off reflects a broader risk-off mood in financial markets, as equities also faced pressure. For stock market investors, bitcoin's decline often signals a rotation away from speculative assets, which can spill over into high-growth tech stocks and crypto-exposed equities. The correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq has been elevated in recent months, meaning a sustained crypto winter could weigh on sentiment for tech-heavy indices. For real-time price updates on bitcoin and related equities, traders can monitor NowPrice's live quotes.
Looking ahead, market participants will watch for further selling by Strategy, which holds a large bitcoin treasury, as well as macroeconomic catalysts such as Federal Reserve policy signals. The Kalshi probabilities suggest that traders are bracing for a prolonged downturn, with the $50,000 level acting as a key psychological support. A break below that could trigger additional stop-loss selling and accelerate the decline. The next major data point is the Fed's June meeting, where any hawkish surprise could further pressure risk assets.