Nvidia stock slips as Kalshi traders bet chip prices will fall
Nvidia shares have slipped over the past month as Kalshi traders bet that chip prices will decline, even as the broader semiconductor sector rallies.
Nvidia shares have struggled in recent weeks, losing about 3% over the past month, even as the broader semiconductor sector rallied. Traders on the prediction market Kalshi are now betting that the prices Nvidia can charge for its chips are also heading lower, adding to the headwinds for the AI chipmaker.
Nvidia's stock has underperformed the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which gained 15% in the past month and is up 84% year-to-date. The divergence reflects a shift in Wall Street's focus toward memory chips and infrastructure plays in the next phase of the AI buildout. Companies like Micron Technology and SanDisk have surged nearly 60% in the past month alone, while Nvidia has largely sat on the sidelines. For equities traders, this rotation underscores the importance of monitoring sector breadth and earnings yield dynamics. The relative weakness in Nvidia could signal that the market is pricing in a peak in AI chip pricing power, which would weigh on the company's revenue growth and margins. Traders can check NowPrice's stocks page for real-time pricing on Nvidia and other semiconductor names.
Looking ahead, investors will watch for any updates on Nvidia's next-generation chip architecture and pricing trends in the AI hardware space. Key data points include the company's upcoming earnings report and commentary on demand from cloud providers. The Kalshi market on chip prices will also be a sentiment gauge, as traders continue to bet on whether Nvidia can maintain its pricing premium amid rising competition.