Asia Coal Demand to Jump 70 Million Tonnes in 2026 on LNG Shortfall
Rystad Energy projects Asia-Pacific thermal coal demand will rise by an additional 150 million tonnes cumulatively through 2030, with 70 million tonnes expected in 2026 alone, driven by LNG shortfalls and Middle East conflict damage to energy infrastructure.
Asia-Pacific thermal coal demand is set to surge by an additional 150 million tonnes cumulatively through 2030, with roughly half of that — 70 million tonnes — expected in 2026 alone, according to Rystad Energy. The sharp increase is driven by a persistent shortfall in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and lasting damage to Gulf energy infrastructure from the Middle East conflict.
For energy commodity traders, this shift underscores a structural change in Asia's fuel mix. The LNG shortfall, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, is forcing power generators and industrial users to turn to coal as a cheaper and more readily available alternative. This dynamic supports higher coal prices and widens the spread between coal and natural gas benchmarks. Traders tracking the coal-to-gas switching threshold should monitor Asia-Pacific LNG spot prices and coal import volumes. For current pricing context, check NowPrice's fuel page.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of coal demand hinges on the pace of LNG supply recovery and the duration of Middle East instability. Key data points to watch include monthly LNG cargo arrivals in China and India, as well as any diplomatic developments that could ease energy infrastructure damage. Rystad's cumulative projection suggests the coal rally may persist for several years, making it a critical factor for long-term energy commodity strategies.