Big Oil Heads for Record Profits as Trump Turns Up the Heat on Gas Prices
ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to report tripled profits in Q2 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz closure drives crude prices to four-year highs, while Trump's pressure on gas prices adds political heat.
ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are on track to report record profits for the second quarter of 2026, with earnings expected to triple from the first quarter. The surge is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed crude oil prices to four-year highs and triggered the worst supply disruption in oil market history. The disruption has removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from global flows, forcing refineries to scramble for alternatives. This has widened the Brent-WTI spread as U.S. crude grades become more attractive, while crack spreads—the difference between crude input and refined product prices—have surged to multi-year highs, boosting downstream margins for integrated majors.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has crippled oil flows from the Middle East, depleting inventories globally, including in the United States, where the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been drawn down to its lowest level since the 1980s. This supply shock has sent crude prices soaring, benefiting major oil companies that are now poised to report windfall earnings. The price spike has also heightened volatility across energy markets, with traders closely watching the situation. The market has flipped from contango to deep backwardation, signaling acute near-term scarcity. Live fuel prices and charts on NowPrice show how the market is reacting to the ongoing disruption, with retail gasoline prices following crude higher despite Trump's public pressure on oil companies to lower prices at the pump.
Looking ahead, the key focus will be on any diplomatic or military developments regarding the Strait of Hormuz. A reopening could quickly reverse price gains, while prolonged closure may lead to further inventory draws and higher prices. OPEC+ spare capacity, concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could be deployed to offset losses, but political coordination with Russia remains uncertain. Additionally, Trump's pressure on gasoline prices adds a political dimension, potentially influencing policy responses such as SPR releases or waivers on biofuel mandates. China's marginal demand, which has been sluggish due to economic headwinds, could also shift if Beijing releases stimulus. Traders should monitor weekly inventory reports and geopolitical headlines for direction.