China Gasoline Demand May Drop 5.5% in 2026 on Oil Price Surge
China's gasoline consumption is forecast to fall 5.5% in 2026, driven by surging oil prices and the accelerating shift to electric vehicles, according to GL Consulting.
China's gasoline consumption is expected to drop 5.5% in 2026 compared to 2025, according to a revised forecast from GL Consulting reported by Bloomberg on Thursday. The consultancy had previously projected a 5.2% decline before the Iran conflict disrupted global oil markets and sent prices surging.
The downward revision reflects two converging pressures: higher oil prices squeezing consumer budgets and the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles in China. For energy traders, this signals a structural shift in demand from the world's largest crude importer. As gasoline demand weakens, refineries may face narrower crack spreads, potentially reducing crude processing rates. Traders can track real-time fuel price movements and demand indicators on NowPrice's live dashboard to adjust positions accordingly.
Looking ahead, the pace of China's EV penetration and any easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will be key to watch. A sustained drop in Chinese gasoline demand could weigh on global refining margins and alter crude trade flows, particularly for light-sweet grades favored for gasoline production.