Middle East Oil Production Rebounds to 15 Million Bpd
Middle East crude output rebounded to 14.6–15 million bpd amid the US-Iran ceasefire, with Rystad Energy predicting full recovery to pre-war levels by end-2026.
Crude oil production in the Middle East rebounded to between 14.6 million and 15 million barrels per day earlier this month, driven by the ceasefire between Iran and the United States, according to a report by the Financial Express citing Rystad Energy.
The rebound marks a significant recovery from the disruptions caused by the conflict, with Rystad Energy predicting that full recovery to pre-war levels could come by the end of the year, three months earlier than previously forecast. The consultancy noted that progress in peace negotiations has boosted optimism, though new strikes between the US and Iran have since been reported, adding a note of caution. For oil traders, the return of Middle Eastern supply is a key factor in the global supply-demand balance, as the region accounts for a substantial share of the world's crude output. Traders can track these supply shifts in real time on NowPrice's live fuel dashboard.
Looking ahead, market participants will watch for further developments in US-Iran relations and any impact on production from other major producers in the region. The pace of recovery will also depend on infrastructure repairs and the willingness of OPEC+ members to adjust quotas. Data on actual export flows and refinery runs in the coming weeks will provide clearer signals on whether the supply rebound is sustainable.