Super El Niño Threatens Colombia Energy Crisis as Drought Looms
Scientists warn a Super El Niño in 2026 could trigger severe droughts in Colombia, slashing hydroelectric output and straining gas-fired thermal plants, risking an energy crisis.
Scientists predict that 2026 will bring a devastating Super El Niño weather event, with rising temperatures and economically damaging droughts expected. Colombia is particularly vulnerable, as the climate pattern is forecast to trigger severe droughts that lower water levels and sharply reduce hydroelectric power generation, which accounts for a significant portion of the country's electricity mix.
The potential drop in hydroelectric output would place immense pressure on Colombia's thermal power plants, which are already constrained by a natural gas shortage. This dual challenge could push the nation into an energy crisis, forcing reliance on more expensive and polluting backup fuels. For energy traders, the situation highlights the growing risk of supply disruptions in Latin America, where hydro-dependent grids are increasingly exposed to climate variability. Traders can monitor real-time price movements of Colombian energy assets and regional gas benchmarks on NowPrice's live fuel dashboard.
Looking ahead, the key variables to watch are the intensity and duration of the Super El Niño event, as well as Colombia's ability to secure additional natural gas imports or accelerate renewable energy projects. Any further tightening of gas supplies or unexpected plant outages could trigger price spikes in the domestic energy market. The broader implications for Latin American energy security will also depend on how other hydro-dependent countries in the region, such as Brazil and Peru, fare under the same climate pattern.