AUDUSD Rebounds but Fails to Hold Above 100-Day MA

AUDUSD rebounded from a low of 0.7019 on Monday, but the pair failed to hold above the 100-day moving average at 0.7073, a level that had provided support since November 2025. The bounce followed a sharp decline on Friday that saw the pair break below a key swing area between 0.7100 and 0.7113 and fall beneath its 100-day MA. The recovery was driven by a reversal in U.S. stocks and a drop in Treasury yields, which improved risk appetite and weakened the U.S. dollar. However, the inability to sustain gains above the 100-day MA suggests that sellers remain in control, and the technical outlook for AUDUSD is bearish in the near term.

For currency traders, the failure to reclaim the 100-day moving average is a significant technical signal. The 100-day MA is closely watched by market participants as a gauge of medium-term trend. A sustained break below this level could open the door for further downside, with the next support around the 0.7000 psychological level and the 200-day moving average near 0.6950. Conversely, if the pair can reclaim and hold above the 100-day MA, it would signal that the recent selloff was a correction within a broader uptrend. The rebound from the 0.7019 low also tested the 50% retracement of the rally from the late-March low to the early-May high at 0.70549, which now serves as near-term resistance. Live FX prices and charts on NowPrice show how the market is reacting to these key levels in real time.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on U.S. inflation data due later this week, which could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and the U.S. dollar's direction. A higher-than-expected reading would likely strengthen the dollar and weigh on AUDUSD, while a soft print could support a further recovery. Additionally, risk sentiment will remain a driver, with any escalation in trade tensions or geopolitical risks potentially renewing selling pressure. The Reserve Bank of Australia's next policy meeting is also on the horizon, and any shift in its rhetoric regarding the economic outlook could impact the Australian dollar. For now, the 100-day MA at 0.7073 is the key level to watch for direction.