Goldman Sachs lifts central bank gold demand forecast, keeps bullish view

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its bullish outlook on gold, raising its central bank demand estimates and keeping its year-end price target at $5,400 per troy ounce.

The investment bank revised its internal tracking model for central bank gold purchases after concluding it had consistently understated buying activity since August 2025. Under the updated methodology, the 12-month moving average estimate rose to 50 tonnes per month as of March, compared with 29 tonnes under the earlier calculation. The revised model estimates that central banks purchased 66 tonnes in March alone, signaling accelerating official-sector demand.

For gold and precious metals traders, this development reinforces a key demand driver that has supported prices over the past few years. Central bank buying, which surged after 2022, has become a structural pillar for gold, offsetting headwinds from higher interest rates and a strong US dollar. Goldman's revised model suggests that official-sector purchases are likely to remain elevated, providing a steady floor under gold prices. Traders can monitor these trends on NowPrice's live gold dashboard to track real-time price reactions to central bank data and macroeconomic releases.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on upcoming central bank reserve data from major buyers such as China, India, and Turkey. Additionally, the trajectory of US real yields and Federal Reserve policy will remain key swing factors for gold. If central bank buying continues to accelerate as Goldman projects, gold could find additional support even if rate-cut expectations are delayed. The $5,400 year-end target implies roughly 10% upside from current levels, contingent on sustained official-sector demand and a supportive macro environment.