Tokyo CPI to Accelerate in June for First Time in Eight Months
Tokyo's core CPI is forecast to rise 1.6% year-on-year in June, accelerating from 1.3% in May, driven by higher energy costs and supply concerns.
Tokyo's consumer price index is set to accelerate in June for the first time in eight months, driven by higher energy costs and lingering supply concerns tied to Middle East tensions following the US-Iran conflict. The closely watched core measure, which strips out fresh food, is forecast to rise 1.6% on the year in June, up from 1.3% in May, which had been the weakest reading since March 2022. Core inflation has fallen sharply from a 3.6% gain recorded in May 2025. The broader CPI is tipped to rise 1.7%, compared with 1.4% in May and the highest since December's 2.0% print. The core-core gauge, which also excludes energy, is seen climbing to 1.8% from 1.6%.
For interest rate traders, the Tokyo CPI is a leading indicator for national inflation trends and influences Bank of Japan policy expectations. An acceleration in core inflation could reduce the likelihood of further monetary easing, potentially supporting the yen and weighing on Japanese government bond prices. The data also feeds into global rate differential dynamics, as a tighter BOJ stance would narrow the gap with US yields. Check NowPrice's rates page for real-time pricing on JPY crosses and JGB futures.
Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the national CPI release later this month and the BOJ's July meeting. Any upside surprise could reinforce speculation of a rate hike, while a miss might keep the central bank on hold. Also watch for energy price trends and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, which remain key upside risks to inflation.