Bitcoin Trades Below Mining Cost for Five Months, Squeezing Miners
JPMorgan reports that Bitcoin has traded below its estimated mining cost of $78,000 for five months, squeezing miners and forcing some to sell, with 20% of miners now unprofitable.
Bitcoin has spent five consecutive months trading below its estimated production cost, a development that is squeezing miners and prompting some to sell their holdings, according to JPMorgan.
The bank estimates the cost to mine one bitcoin at roughly $78,000, well above the current price of around $62,500. The prolonged period of unprofitability has taken a toll on the mining sector. JPMorgan, citing data from CoinShares, said about 20% of miners are now unprofitable. Publicly traded miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026 to cover operating costs, exceeding the total they sold in all of 2025. This selling pressure adds to the supply overhang in the market, potentially capping any near-term price recovery.
The network is adjusting through its built-in difficulty mechanism. As higher-cost miners shut down their rigs, the hashrate — the total computing power securing the Bitcoin network — declines. This reduction in hashrate will eventually lead to a downward adjustment in mining difficulty, making it cheaper for remaining miners to produce new coins. Historically, such periods of miner capitulation have coincided with market bottoms, though the timing is uncertain. Traders can monitor live Bitcoin price and hashrate data on NowPrice to track how the market is reacting to these dynamics.
Looking ahead, the key question is whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $78,000 level to restore miner profitability. A sustained move above that threshold could alleviate selling pressure and signal a shift in market sentiment. Conversely, if prices remain depressed, further miner liquidations are likely. The next difficulty adjustment, expected in about two weeks, will provide a clearer picture of how much capacity has left the network. Additionally, any macroeconomic catalyst — such as a shift in Federal Reserve policy or a broader risk-on move — could influence Bitcoin's trajectory.