Bitwise model puts bitcoin fair value at $224,000 as sovereign-default hedge
A Bitwise research model suggests bitcoin's fair value could reach $224,000 if adopted as portfolio insurance against G20 sovereign defaults, though the firm stresses it is not a price target.
A monthly research report from Bitwise's European arm has estimated bitcoin's theoretical fair value at roughly $224,000, based on the asset's potential role as portfolio insurance against sovereign debt defaults by G20 nations.
The model, first proposed by analyst Greg Foss in 2021, treats bitcoin as a credit default swap on sovereign bonds. Because bitcoin operates without a central issuer or sovereign backstop, it could serve as a non-correlated hedge against the risk of major sovereign defaults. The research team emphasized that the $224,000 figure is a model-implied illustrative number, not a price target or forecast. For crypto traders, this framework highlights bitcoin's potential as a macro hedge, especially in an environment where sovereign debt concerns are rising. Investors can check NowPrice's crypto page for real-time bitcoin pricing and market data.
Looking ahead, the model's relevance will depend on actual sovereign credit events and broader adoption of bitcoin as an institutional hedge. Traders should monitor G20 debt dynamics and any shifts in bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets.