Wall Street ends higher as oil slides on US-Iran deal

Wall Street's main indexes closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow rising more than 0.1%, the S&P 500 gaining over 1%, and the Nasdaq climbing nearly 2%. The session was boosted by strength in chip stocks and optimism over a US-Iran agreement that sent oil prices tumbling. The Nasdaq's outperformance reflected a rotation into technology shares, while energy stocks lagged as crude prices fell sharply. The rally in semiconductors was driven by strong earnings from major chipmakers, which overshadowed lingering concerns about interest rates and slowing global growth.

Oil prices slid to their lowest levels since early March after the US and Iran signed an interim agreement extending the April ceasefire by another 60 days. This development raised the possibility of increased Iranian crude exports, which could add to global supply at a time when OPEC+ is already expected to unwind some production cuts later this year. For energy traders, lower crude prices typically reduce input costs for refiners and improve margins, but they also signal potential oversupply concerns. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed on the news, while US Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels remain near historic lows after last year's releases. Crack spreads, which measure refining profitability, initially widened on cheaper feedstock but may face pressure if product demand weakens. China's marginal demand for crude remains a key variable, as the world's largest importer shows uneven economic recovery. Saudi-Russia coordination within OPEC+ will be tested if Iran returns to the market, potentially leading to deeper cuts to maintain price stability. The crude futures curve has shifted from backwardation toward contango, indicating that traders expect ample supply in the near term. Traders can monitor real-time fuel price movements on NowPrice's live dashboard to track how these geopolitical developments impact refined product spreads.

Looking ahead, market participants will watch for further details on the US-Iran deal and its implications for global oil supply. Any concrete timeline for lifting sanctions could accelerate Iranian exports, while the US administration may also consider additional releases from the SPR to manage gasoline prices ahead of the summer driving season. Additionally, upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary will be key to assessing whether lower energy costs translate into broader disinflation, or if other factors keep price pressures elevated. The interplay between easing supply constraints and resilient demand will determine whether the current sell-off in crude is sustainable or merely a temporary correction.