Goldman holds TTF gas forecasts, flags upside risk and delayed LNG recovery

Goldman Sachs has maintained its TTF natural gas price forecasts, but flagged upside risks and a delayed recovery in LNG supply, according to a research note. The bank's base case remains unchanged, but the note highlights that the marginal delay to LNG normalisation—pushed from end-June to end-July—is a small but meaningful signal that the physical market is not clearing as quickly as hoped following the recent memorandum of understanding signing.

The most market-sensitive element of the note is the explicit quantification of the Hormuz tail risk: a move above 100 EUR/MWh this winter would represent more than a doubling of Goldman's second-half 2026 base case and would have severe knock-on effects for European industrial demand, power prices, and inflation. While that scenario remains contingent on a sustained blockade resumption—which is not Goldman's central case—the explicit quantification will anchor trader thinking on the upside. For currency traders, a sustained spike in European gas prices would likely weigh on the euro, as it would worsen the region's terms of trade and increase recession risks, while potentially boosting the US dollar on safe-haven flows. Traders can monitor current TTF futures pricing on NowPrice's energy page for real-time context.

Looking ahead, the key events to watch are the evolution of LNG supply normalization and any developments regarding the Hormuz Strait. The steep descent in Goldman's 2028-2029 forecasts suggests the bank expects a longer-term easing, but the near-term risks are skewed to the upside. Traders should also monitor European storage levels and weather forecasts, as a cold winter combined with supply disruptions could amplify price moves. Any further delays in LNG normalization or escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger a reassessment of the risk premium embedded in TTF futures.