Vietnam Coffee Output to Rise for Third Straight Year in 2026/27
USDA FAS forecasts Vietnam's green coffee production to rise 2.5% to 32.5 million bags in 2026/27, driven by robusta expansion and high prices, marking the third straight year of growth.
Vietnam's coffee production is set to rise for the third consecutive year in the 2026/27 market year, according to a report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. The agency forecasts green coffee output to increase 2.5% to 32.5 million 60-kilogram bags, driven by robusta expansion and sustained high prices. This marks a continued upward trend from the previous two years, reflecting the country's dominant role in the global robusta market. The USDA's projections are closely watched by traders and roasters worldwide, as Vietnam supplies a significant portion of the world's robusta beans, which are commonly used in instant coffee and espresso blends.
High coffee prices in 2024 and 2025 encouraged farmers to expand planting areas and invest in better cultivation practices, particularly for robusta beans, which dominate Vietnam's output. The country is the world's largest robusta producer, and the ongoing expansion supports global supply expectations. Traders and roasters are closely watching Vietnam's crop as it influences robusta premiums and arabica-robusta spreads. Live commodities prices and charts on NowPrice show how the market is reacting to supply forecasts, with robusta futures often moving in tandem with Vietnamese production estimates. The price incentive has been a key driver, as robusta prices reached multi-year highs in 2024, prompting farmers to replant older trees and adopt more efficient irrigation and fertilization techniques.
Looking ahead, the market will monitor weather conditions in Vietnam's Central Highlands and export pace in the coming months. The USDA also projects higher exports and domestic consumption, reflecting steady demand from both local and international buyers. Any deviation from the forecast could affect global coffee prices, especially if robusta supply tightens. Key factors to watch include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, which can bring drought or excessive rainfall to the region, and the pace of farmer selling, which influences short-term price volatility. Additionally, global demand trends, particularly from major consumers like the European Union and the United States, will play a role in determining whether the increased output is absorbed without significant price declines.