Industry veteran warns Trump jawboning masks oil-supply disaster, $135 crude possible

An industry veteran and former trader warns that President Donald Trump's rhetorical pressure on oil producers has masked a deepening global supply crisis, with crude prices potentially reaching $135 per barrel.

Dan Dicker, author and former energy trader, argues that Trump's 'jawboning'—publicly urging OPEC and other producers to boost output—has only temporarily suppressed prices. Beneath the surface, years of underinvestment in new production, geopolitical tensions, and declining spare capacity have created a structural deficit. The market is now facing a supply disaster that could trigger a sharp price spike once the artificial cap from political pressure fades.

For fuel traders, this scenario underscores the fragility of current supply balances. The Brent-WTI spread could widen as different grades feel the pinch, and refiners may face margin compression from rising crude costs. NowPrice's live fuel prices and charts show how the market is already pricing in these risks, with volatility expected to increase. Traders should watch for any signs of OPEC+ discord or unexpected outages that could accelerate the move toward $135.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether producers can ramp up output quickly enough to avert a crisis. With US shale growth slowing and OPEC's spare capacity dwindling, the margin for error is thin. Any disruption—from hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico to geopolitical flashpoints—could be the catalyst that sends crude soaring. Traders should monitor weekly inventory data and OPEC+ meeting outcomes for clues on the supply trajectory.